Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Comparing Ovechkin's Stats (Malkin VS Ovechkin, Part 102)

I did a little number-crunching with stats after reading one of the comments my readers left yesterday regarding Alex Ovechkin and the fact that he's more concerned with playing physically with opposing teams having elite Russian players then when playing against teams without (and he would have more goals against those without Russian players since he's not preoccupied with head-hunting anyone).

A friend and i were discussing Ovie's headhunting of Malkin. He said that it seems that Ovie goes after Russian elite players. My friend is from NC, so He sees the `Canes, and mentioned that Ovie goes after Ilya Kovalchuk the same way.He mentioned about his point totals when he's playing against teams with "elite" Russian players? I think you'll notice a drop-off. He's too busy trying to hurt people to score.

I thought it was an interesting point and decided to do some research as mentioned above because it made me curious.

I took stats (goals scored) for Ovechkin during the regular 2007-2008 season (taken from NHL.com using the boxscore of game recaps in the schedule tab) when playing against the teams of the two players m-kim58 mentions in her comment (Evgeni Malkin and Ilya Kovalchuk) - Pittsburgh and Atlanta and compared them to 2 teams that do not have any Russian players on it - Islanders and NJ Devils.

What's even more interesting is the fact that the results are almost the complete opposite of what we were expecting. It appears that Ovechkin scores more goals when he's playing against Pittsburgh and Atlanta (having elite Russian players) from looking at the stats and making a comparison. It wasn't a large difference, but I really didn't have a lot of games to "sample" from (8-12).


Here is the breakdown:

Goals scored against Atlanta - 6
Goals scored against Pittsburgh - 3
TOTAL = 9 goals

Goals scored against New York (Islanders) - 2
Goals scored against New Jersey - 0
TOTAL = 2 goals

He scores a little over 4 times as much against Pittsburgh and Atlanta than he does when playing the Islanders and Devils. The only explanation I can offer is:

  1. we are way off on our thinking and he isn't as pre-occupied with Malkin as we believe (I find this hard to believe because everytime he turned around, Malkin was being pushed around by Ovechkin); OR
  2. not only is Ovechkin motivated to be physical with the "Russian elite" on opposing teams, but also to work harder to score goals at the same time which would be exhausting.
Bottom line, he either doesn't spend as much time going after Malkin or spends more energy to be both physical and score goals.

If anyone else has any thoughts (or thinks comparing other stats would allow me to come up with better / more accurate results, let me know) - I'd LOVE to hear what everyone else is thinking!

3 comments:

Life_As_A_Redhead said...

I truly did not expect those results.

Did you happen to notice the assists and/or hits, also? (not that I think your information is incomplete, or inaccruate, just wondering/and babbling. I also have no idea where to find the stats on hits.) That might help us have a more complete picture (is he just lucky, or actually elevating his play)

At this point it's looking like (to me at least, and I might be wrong still also) he is working harder, against the other Russians. Which when you think about it. Is logical to a point.

I'm very proud of you, Stephanie, for going for the "stat book" to support your opinions.

Stephanie said...

I didn't look at hits, but I did scribble down penalities which I didn't include because the numbers were insignificant either way; I thought about assists when I was almost done and with as much "back and forth" I did, I said the heck with it, but maybe I'll do that later on.

THANKS, Kena!

Rage said...

Hi, I'm the friend from NC mentioned in your post. I'm a little surprised by your findings. Mostly b/c I'm a lazy bastard when it comes to stats. What made me think about the offensive production falloff was the amount of time and energy he spent trying to destroy Malkin the whole game the last time the 2 teams played and he (Ovie)had nothing for points. I also noticed the Kovalchuk thing last season as well. Maybe he's just doing it to the exclusion of everything else this season because of the big Malkin missed hit that gets played continuously. Love your blog! You do nice work, count me in!